Why is the future (not) black?

The numbers tell… the truth

October is traditionally the month of Breast Cancer Awareness Month, and November is the International Month of the Fight against Male Cancer.
In the EU 355,000 people will be diagnosed with breast cancer this year. people, prostate cancer in 336,000. people and will be the most common cancers in women and men, respectively. Cancer is the first or second leading cause of premature death in 134 countries … in another 45, they are third or fourth.
In 2018, they caused 9.6 million deaths annually. Less than 50,000 new cases are diagnosed daily, which means just over 18 million cases each year. According to WHO predictions, 29.5 million people will fall ill with cancer in 2040 … 16.4 million will die, so 45,000 people a day.
I remember the annual campaigns, I was quite involved in. Raising public awareness, open days, pro bono screening, patient helplines … lots of medical entities and community organizations contributed to building a patient support system.
However, I have an overwhelming impression that all the illnesses have been cancelled this year. October was not the month of pink ribbons, I do not hear any appeals about the traditional growing of a “November mustache” in connection with the Movember campaign. Do you have similar observations? Exactly.

Disease in times of plague

Doctors at the Dana Faber Cancer Institute reported a 46% drop in the number of six most common cancers diagnosed during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic. At the same time, the number of people undergoing screening tests like mammography has dropped by 90%.
Screening decreased sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic. Cervical cancer screening results fell by 68% in the US in the first 15 weeks of 2020. At the same time, the number of mammograms has dropped from 17 to 90% depending on the region and the incidence of COVID-19. It is estimated that delayed screening could cost the lives of another 10,000 patients over the next 10 years.
Early detection is crucial in treating cancer. For cervical cancer, the five-year survival rate is 92% if it is diagnosed in the early stages and only 17% in the advanced stage.

Work in times of plague

According to a survey of health professionals from 18 countries, 32% of centers concerned early treatment discontinuation, while 64% of medical professionals considered the risk of insufficient treatment to be the main risk for patients.
The pandemic, however, contributed to the closer cooperation between doctors. 9 out of 10 confirmed more frequent e-meetings of multidisciplinary cancer teams and the use of virtual educational platforms, which should have a positive impact on the effects of treatment

Through the patient’s eye

An American Cancer Society survey found that 87% of patients said COVID-19 had somehow influenced their cancer treatment. 37% reported delays in the process of diagnosis and treatment, and almost a quarter were afraid of losing their health insurance for economic reasons. The most frequent changes concerned visits to the oncologist, 57%, 34% indicated surgery, 25% imaging tests, 22% chemotherapy, 13.7% radiotherapy.

Has the world of science stopped?


Global analyses indicate an over 60% decrease in the proportion of new patients in clinical trials in the field of oncology. Currently, 12,000 studies in this area are active in the world. Stopping many of them will have long-term health consequences that are difficult to quantify. Not only for patients who have had treatment discontinued, but also for future patients.
A March 2020 survey found nearly 60% of scientists withheld screening and qualification for some of their research. Half of the institutions have stopped collecting blood and other tissues for research purposes.
The statistical cost of the research in the third phase is about $ 20 million, I am convinced that not all of them will be able to resume in their original shape, and consequently it may delay or even prevent the development of some drugs.

By focusing on the coronavirus pandemic … are we not ignoring the cancer pandemic?

Sometimes it seems to me that we are like this frog that will boil in the heating water instead of jumping out of it. Do we not feel a growing threat? Don’t the numbers impress us? C.
It is estimated that by 2050, approximately 6.9 million new cases of cancer will be diagnosed in adults over 80 years of age. At a global level, an increase of over 200% is expected compared to 2018. Most significant in China (+ 327%), Latin America and the Caribbean (+ 253%), Africa (+ 228%) and the lowest in Europe ( + 87%).
Without additional investment in improving access to healthcare and cancer treatment, an estimated 13.7 million children worldwide will develop cancer between 2020 and 2050 – more than 10 million of these cases will be in low-income countries, and less than a million in high-income countries. Out of these, 6.1 million cases (45%) will go undiagnosed and untreated …

Are we really helpless? Isn’t it easier to live healthier?

Is the cancer epidemic a rushing train that we are unable to stop? Have things gone too far? Have we lost our influence on the world we have dominated?
It is estimated that smoking causes 22% of cancer cases worldwide, another 15% were due to infections such as HPV, hepatitis B and C and others … About one-third of cancer deaths are due to five major risks we have influence on: high BMI , low consumption of fruit and vegetables, lack of physical activity, smoking and alcohol consumption.
According to WHO data, 30 to 50% of cancer cases are avoidable. By minimizing risk factors and implementing existing prevention strategies. The cancer burden can also be reduced by detecting cancer early. Many cancers have a good chance of being cured if they are diagnosed early and treated properly.

Maybe healthcare investments pay off?

The total annual economic cost of cancer in 2010 was estimated at approximately $ 1.16 trillion. In the years 2015-2030, costs in the USA alone will increase by 30%, reaching USD 246 billion annually.
The number of people aged 80 or older is expected to triple by 2050. Globally, from 143 million in 2019 to 426 million by 2050. Due to the complexity of treating cancer in the oldest patients, rapid growth will challenge systems healthcare worldwide with measurable economic and social impacts on families and society.
On the other extreme, we have the topic of the youngest. Researchers at the St Jude Children’s Research Hospital assume that improving treatment outcomes for children with cancer is both feasible and highly cost-effective for all rich and poor countries.
Widening access to diagnosis, treatment and care, along with wider strengthening of health systems, could prevent more than 6 million child deaths. This equates to 318 million healthy life years for children who are treated successfully and live adulthood, pay taxes, power the insurance system… for a $ 3 refund for every dollar spent. By investing $ 20 billion annually over the next 30 years around the world, the global economy could gain less than $ 2 trillion. Perhaps such a language of benefits will reach the global political class and will allow the implementation of real actions in this area

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